We appreciate how hard it is to manage your shipments with the never-ending rate fluctuations. So we’ve put together a quick comparison graph detailing the rate changes over the years and a few tips on what to look out for in the coming months.
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Early Price Peak Season For Christmas Shipping
Since December 2023 there have been constant delays of around 2 weeks due to the conflict in the Red Sea meaning importers are now having to take around 4-6 weeks extra into account to ensure stock arrives in the UK in time. As a result, these delays have pushed importers to prepare for Christmas early by ordering stock a month or so early this year.
This conflict has had a knock-on effect on the industry with lack of space in China, vessels missing ports on their routes, added transit time, as well as port congestion here in the UK.
Importers have therefore taken more time into account for transit, ordering stock earlier to ensure arrival for Christmas sales. This has caused a premature peak where demand has been higher in July as opposed to August. Therefore, we are seeing these price increases start to slow down now we are approaching August, where we would usually expect to see a surge in price for August shipments.
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Why Is This Happening?
The cost of shipping (as I’m sure you’ve witnessed!) is far higher now than it was this time last year due to the conflict in Gaza having an impact on international shipping as the attacks on the Red Sea have forced ships to re-route around Africa.
Due to the longer journey, shipping lines have been required to release more ships to keep up with the demand of space needed. This means there are more vessels on the water for longer periods of time meaning… less space.
Port congestion has prolonged the lack of space as the vessels are now waiting outside the ports in order to offload their containers for longer periods, causing a back-log of containers in China waiting to be loaded as a result of the limited space.
Shipping lines tend to keep vessels free in order to release more space at peak times however, these longer routes have caused the shipping lines to have the majority of their vessels already in operation meaning no further space can be released when it is needed.
Therefore the slowing down of rate increases is welcome news for the industry as we approach the end of the year with the attacks on the Red Sea not looking to calm any time soon.
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Comparison Of Rates Over The Last 6 Years
As you can see from the graph below, the cost per CBM has fluctuated massively over the last 6 years with the rates climbing again. While we look at prices similar to that of January 2021 the steadying of rates as we approach the end of the year is promising.
However, as seen in previous years it is impossible to predict the upcoming rates as the economic state of the world has such an impact on global logistics and shipping lines have complete control over how much available space is in operation which adds to the uncertainty of shipping prices.
As seen recently, delays have come in thick and fast with reduced space available on vessels, ships being routed around Africa and port congestion building at UK ports so it’s more important than ever to plan ahead…
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Key Upcoming Dates
While this post has been relatively gloomy (with a hint of good news!) we can help you to plan ahead for your future imports by preparing for dates that could increase the price of shipping from Asia to the UK.
If you’re planning an import over the coming weeks, here are some dates for your diary:
- Chinese New Year 2025 – The year of the snake slithers in on the 29th of January 2025 so expect Chinese factories to be closed from around the 24th January until the 3rd February.
- Shippo Office Hours – We will be open as usual throughout the festive period other than the bank holidays (25th, 26th December and 1st January) when we will be closed.
- Shippo Warehousing – Due to haulage closures we expect that any final picks leaving before Christmas will need to be made by mid-day on Friday the 20th December. All warehouse activities will be back to normal on the 2nd of January 2025.
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